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Summary – April 22

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  • Mexican economic activity data for February are published on Monday, followed by the latest Banamex survey of economists. Elsewhere, Argentina budget balance data for March will cross. In the G10, focus for the Monday session rests on the US Chicago Fed national activity index. The central bank speaker slate sees the ECB's Lagarde on the docket, with Fed speakers notably absent as the FOMC enter their pre-meeting media blackout period.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – There was no further escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, while in the US, the foreign aid bill finally passed through the House and is expected to pass the senate this week. It included $61bn of military help for Ukraine, $17.3bn of military support for Israel and $9.1bn of humanitarian aid for Gaza.
    • RUSSIA (MNI) – Following the news on the foreign aid bill in the US, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appeared to escalate the nuclear rhetoric, saying that the "US and NATO are obsessed with the idea of inflicting 'strategic defeat' on Russia... West is teetering dangerously on the brink of a direct military clash between nuclear powers." The comments come ahead of a trip to China from US Secretary of State Blinken where he is expected to warn of the consequences of Beijing's continued "support for Russia's defence industrial base."
    • EU – The ECB won’t be swayed from a first interest-rate cut in June by oil price uncertainty, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. Even if conflict in the Middle East did push up oil costs, policymakers would have to first analyse if such a shock fuelled underlying prices and inflation expectations, he said. Asked if uncertainty could delay the start of monetary easing, he said “no — unless there is a surprise, we must not wait too much.”
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  • Mexican economic activity data for February are published on Monday, followed by the latest Banamex survey of economists. Elsewhere, Argentina budget balance data for March will cross. In the G10, focus for the Monday session rests on the US Chicago Fed national activity index. The central bank speaker slate sees the ECB's Lagarde on the docket, with Fed speakers notably absent as the FOMC enter their pre-meeting media blackout period.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – There was no further escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the weekend, while in the US, the foreign aid bill finally passed through the House and is expected to pass the senate this week. It included $61bn of military help for Ukraine, $17.3bn of military support for Israel and $9.1bn of humanitarian aid for Gaza.
    • RUSSIA (MNI) – Following the news on the foreign aid bill in the US, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appeared to escalate the nuclear rhetoric, saying that the "US and NATO are obsessed with the idea of inflicting 'strategic defeat' on Russia... West is teetering dangerously on the brink of a direct military clash between nuclear powers." The comments come ahead of a trip to China from US Secretary of State Blinken where he is expected to warn of the consequences of Beijing's continued "support for Russia's defence industrial base."
    • EU – The ECB won’t be swayed from a first interest-rate cut in June by oil price uncertainty, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. Even if conflict in the Middle East did push up oil costs, policymakers would have to first analyse if such a shock fuelled underlying prices and inflation expectations, he said. Asked if uncertainty could delay the start of monetary easing, he said “no — unless there is a surprise, we must not wait too much.”