BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

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Summary – February 02

LATAM
  • Brazil December industrial production and Mexico November gross fixed investment are the highlights of the LatAm docket on Friday. Brazil and Mexico January vehicle sales will also cross, while in Colomba BanRep will publish its latest quarterly inflation report later. Elsewhere, the main focus will be on the US January employment report due at 1330GMT (0830ET).
  • Global News:
    • US - Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising 185k in January after December’s 216k outturn, while primary dealers see a median 205k. The establishment survey will be affected by annual benchmark revisions, new seasonal factors and updated estimates for the net birth/death model, whilst the household survey will be adjusted for new population controls. The unemployment rate is seen increasing a tenth to 3.8%, whilst AHE are seen moderating. Fed Chair Powell has raised the bar to a first cut in March, but with traders also weighing NYCB’s troubles, this report carries large two-sided risk.
    • Israel - Negotiations are advancing for an agreement to pause the Israel-Hamas war and free civilian hostages captured by Hamas, people familiar with the matter said, in a deal that those involved believe could be a crucial step toward ending the four-month conflict.
    • Ukraine - All 27 EU leaders have agreed a €50bn (£42bn; $54bn) aid package for Ukraine, after Hungary stopped blocking the deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the new funding, saying it would strengthen the country's economic and financial stability
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