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LATAM: Summary – January 23

LATAM
  • Mexico bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of January take the focus on Thursday, with the headline rate expected to fall to 3.72% y/y, while core inflation holds steady around 3.69% y/y. Elsewhere, the BCCh publishes its traders’ survey ahead of the Jan 28 MPC meeting, where expectations are that the easing cycle will be paused. Argentina November economic activity is also due.
  • In the G10, weekly US jobless claims data and Canadian retail sales are the calendar highlights, although more attention will likely be paid to Trump's video-link appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which is set for 1600GMT(1100ET).
  • The USD Index holds above the weekly low, but remains comfortably off the year's best levels. That said, the underlying uptrend remains intact given the stabilisation above the 50-dma support this week. The upswing in near-term momentum remains a key driver here and notably the premium for the 50-dma over the 200-dma is at a new cycle high today (~2.8%) and the largest since late 2022.
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  • Mexico bi-weekly CPI data for the first half of January take the focus on Thursday, with the headline rate expected to fall to 3.72% y/y, while core inflation holds steady around 3.69% y/y. Elsewhere, the BCCh publishes its traders’ survey ahead of the Jan 28 MPC meeting, where expectations are that the easing cycle will be paused. Argentina November economic activity is also due.
  • In the G10, weekly US jobless claims data and Canadian retail sales are the calendar highlights, although more attention will likely be paid to Trump's video-link appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which is set for 1600GMT(1100ET).
  • The USD Index holds above the weekly low, but remains comfortably off the year's best levels. That said, the underlying uptrend remains intact given the stabilisation above the 50-dma support this week. The upswing in near-term momentum remains a key driver here and notably the premium for the 50-dma over the 200-dma is at a new cycle high today (~2.8%) and the largest since late 2022.