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LATAM: Summary – January 30

LATAM
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Q4 GDP data for Mexico are due on Thursday, where a soft print could increase prospects of the central bank stepping up its easing pace at its Feb 6 monetary policy meeting. December public balance figures also cross. Elsewhere, Brazil formal job creation and central government budget balance data for December will be released, while in Colombia, the trade deficit is expected to widen to $1.3bn in November.
  • In the G10, focus will be on the ECB rate decision, at which markets expect another sequential 25bp cut. The tone of Lagarde's press conference will be carefully watched, particularly to gauge any contrast with Powell's policy comments yesterday - at which the Fed adopted an effective wait-and-see approach on rates for this year.
  • JPY is favoured across G10 for a second session, helping press USD/JPY seemingly sustainably back below the 50-dma. The moves follow a speech from the BoJ's deputy governor Himino, who stressed that real rates in Japan remain in negative territory, meaning the BoJ has scope to continue to tighten policy. Meanwhile, the EUR trades poorly on the back of a soft string of economic data, with both French and German GDP below expectations.
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  • Q4 GDP data for Mexico are due on Thursday, where a soft print could increase prospects of the central bank stepping up its easing pace at its Feb 6 monetary policy meeting. December public balance figures also cross. Elsewhere, Brazil formal job creation and central government budget balance data for December will be released, while in Colombia, the trade deficit is expected to widen to $1.3bn in November.
  • In the G10, focus will be on the ECB rate decision, at which markets expect another sequential 25bp cut. The tone of Lagarde's press conference will be carefully watched, particularly to gauge any contrast with Powell's policy comments yesterday - at which the Fed adopted an effective wait-and-see approach on rates for this year.
  • JPY is favoured across G10 for a second session, helping press USD/JPY seemingly sustainably back below the 50-dma. The moves follow a speech from the BoJ's deputy governor Himino, who stressed that real rates in Japan remain in negative territory, meaning the BoJ has scope to continue to tighten policy. Meanwhile, the EUR trades poorly on the back of a soft string of economic data, with both French and German GDP below expectations.