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Summary – July 11

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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
  • Attention on Thursday will be on the BCRP interest rate decision this evening, when the central bank is expected to keep its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 5.75%. Elsewhere, Banxico will publish the minutes to its June MPC meeting, when it left rates on hold at 11.0%, while Brazil will release May retail sales figures. In the US, focus turns to the June CPI data, where markets expect headline inflation to slow to 3.1% y/y from 3.3%, while core inflation holds at 3.4%. Central bank speakers today include the Fed's Bostic and Musalem.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% m/m in June after the softer than expected 0.16% m/m in May. But there is an unusually wide range of estimates for core this month. Uncertainty over some categories means that a surprise reading in either direction should be interpreted with caution. That may prove especially true for the “supercore’ reading, which is expected to bounce from May’s slightly negative m/m print, to 0.27%, but with a wide range of estimates.
    • US (MNI) – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday the US economy is likely headed for a rare soft landing due partly to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic. Much of the inflation over the past four years was due to shortages that have since been resolved, and even after tight labour markets took over as the main driver of inflation, there are signs that too is easing, she said.
    • UK/US – President Biden called the UK the “knot” that ties the NATO alliance together as he praised new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to forge closer ties with Europe. It was the first meeting of the two leaders since the Labour Party won the British election less than a week ago.
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  • Attention on Thursday will be on the BCRP interest rate decision this evening, when the central bank is expected to keep its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 5.75%. Elsewhere, Banxico will publish the minutes to its June MPC meeting, when it left rates on hold at 11.0%, while Brazil will release May retail sales figures. In the US, focus turns to the June CPI data, where markets expect headline inflation to slow to 3.1% y/y from 3.3%, while core inflation holds at 3.4%. Central bank speakers today include the Fed's Bostic and Musalem.
  • Global news:
    • US (MNI) – Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% m/m in June after the softer than expected 0.16% m/m in May. But there is an unusually wide range of estimates for core this month. Uncertainty over some categories means that a surprise reading in either direction should be interpreted with caution. That may prove especially true for the “supercore’ reading, which is expected to bounce from May’s slightly negative m/m print, to 0.27%, but with a wide range of estimates.
    • US (MNI) – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday the US economy is likely headed for a rare soft landing due partly to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic. Much of the inflation over the past four years was due to shortages that have since been resolved, and even after tight labour markets took over as the main driver of inflation, there are signs that too is easing, she said.
    • UK/US – President Biden called the UK the “knot” that ties the NATO alliance together as he praised new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s efforts to forge closer ties with Europe. It was the first meeting of the two leaders since the Labour Party won the British election less than a week ago.