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Summary – June 06

LATAM
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsBank of Japan (BOJ) Market News
  • Brazil will publish May trade data on Thursday, while Chile nominal wage figures for April will cross. Mexico vehicle production data for May will also be released, while in Argentina, the BCRA will publish its latest economic survey. In the G10, focus will be on the ECB meeting when a 25bp cut is widely expected. On the data front, US initial jobless claims will be the only notable release.
  • Global News:
    • ECB (MNI) – A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in a significant loss of credibility. However, uncertainties over inflation persistence, the geopolitical backdrop, and the outlook for global monetary policy (principally the Fed) suggest that the June decision will be no more than an insurance cut at this stage with no new policy signals.
    • ISRAEL – Israel is escalating warnings against Hezbollah in Lebanon by threatening it could be forced into a war with the Iran-backed group following increasingly deadly attacks. Hezbollah’s rockets and drones have caused significant damage in the past few days, prompting Israeli officials to reiterate previous warnings to the group and Lebanon that war is an option.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura said on Thursday it is appropriate for the BOJ to continue with the current easy policy to achieve the bank’s 2% price target. Nakamura said that the board’s median view showed that the core consumer price index is expected to move about 2% in fiscal 2025 and 2026, but he sees the risk that core CPI will not achieve 2% in or after fiscal 2025.
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  • Brazil will publish May trade data on Thursday, while Chile nominal wage figures for April will cross. Mexico vehicle production data for May will also be released, while in Argentina, the BCRA will publish its latest economic survey. In the G10, focus will be on the ECB meeting when a 25bp cut is widely expected. On the data front, US initial jobless claims will be the only notable release.
  • Global News:
    • ECB (MNI) – A June cut has been so well-telegraphed by the ECB that failing to deliver would result in a significant loss of credibility. However, uncertainties over inflation persistence, the geopolitical backdrop, and the outlook for global monetary policy (principally the Fed) suggest that the June decision will be no more than an insurance cut at this stage with no new policy signals.
    • ISRAEL – Israel is escalating warnings against Hezbollah in Lebanon by threatening it could be forced into a war with the Iran-backed group following increasingly deadly attacks. Hezbollah’s rockets and drones have caused significant damage in the past few days, prompting Israeli officials to reiterate previous warnings to the group and Lebanon that war is an option.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura said on Thursday it is appropriate for the BOJ to continue with the current easy policy to achieve the bank’s 2% price target. Nakamura said that the board’s median view showed that the core consumer price index is expected to move about 2% in fiscal 2025 and 2026, but he sees the risk that core CPI will not achieve 2% in or after fiscal 2025.