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Summary – June 27

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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsRiksbank Market News
  • The BCB will publish its June quarterly inflation report on Thursday, while Brazil IGPM inflation for June and May formal job creation data will also cross. In Mexico, most analysts expect Banxico to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 11.00% today, following the sharp depreciation of the peso post-election. Mexico will also publish May unemployment and trade data, while Argentina June consumer confidence is due.
  • In the US, the tertiary read of Q1 GDP is set to cross, alongside the weekly jobless claims data, although prelim durable goods orders could be more consequential for markets. The central bank speaker slate is far quieter, with no Fedspeak of note.
  • Global news:
    • JAPAN – Japan will take appropriate action as needed to defend its currency as it watches out for sudden, one-sided moves, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters after the yen slid to the lowest level versus the dollar since 1986. “It is desirable for the exchange rate to move in a stable manner,” Suzuki said on Thursday morning. “Sudden, one-sided moves are not desirable. We are strongly concerned about the impact on the economy. We will analyse the background to this move with a high sense of urgency, and take necessary action as needed.”
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – China's Communist Party will hold its long-delayed third plenum from July 15-18 in Beijing, announced by the Politburo meeting on Thursday, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. The Central Committee of China’s Communist Party’s third plenums, held every five years, typically set reform on economic, market government function, fiscal policies and urban and rural development for the next 5-10 years. July's meeting will occur nearly a year later than usual.
    • SWEDEN (MNI) – The Riksbank left its policy rate on hold at 3.75% at its June meeting, as widely expected, and delivered dovish guidance, stating that if things unfolded as expected it could cut two or three times in the second half of the year. The Swedish central bank shifted its policy rate path a little lower. It said that despite the recent unexpectedly strong core inflation print, fundamentals pointed to softening inflation and with the krona having ticked up it could ease further. In May its guidance was for two cuts in H2.
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  • The BCB will publish its June quarterly inflation report on Thursday, while Brazil IGPM inflation for June and May formal job creation data will also cross. In Mexico, most analysts expect Banxico to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 11.00% today, following the sharp depreciation of the peso post-election. Mexico will also publish May unemployment and trade data, while Argentina June consumer confidence is due.
  • In the US, the tertiary read of Q1 GDP is set to cross, alongside the weekly jobless claims data, although prelim durable goods orders could be more consequential for markets. The central bank speaker slate is far quieter, with no Fedspeak of note.
  • Global news:
    • JAPAN – Japan will take appropriate action as needed to defend its currency as it watches out for sudden, one-sided moves, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters after the yen slid to the lowest level versus the dollar since 1986. “It is desirable for the exchange rate to move in a stable manner,” Suzuki said on Thursday morning. “Sudden, one-sided moves are not desirable. We are strongly concerned about the impact on the economy. We will analyse the background to this move with a high sense of urgency, and take necessary action as needed.”
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – China's Communist Party will hold its long-delayed third plenum from July 15-18 in Beijing, announced by the Politburo meeting on Thursday, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. The Central Committee of China’s Communist Party’s third plenums, held every five years, typically set reform on economic, market government function, fiscal policies and urban and rural development for the next 5-10 years. July's meeting will occur nearly a year later than usual.
    • SWEDEN (MNI) – The Riksbank left its policy rate on hold at 3.75% at its June meeting, as widely expected, and delivered dovish guidance, stating that if things unfolded as expected it could cut two or three times in the second half of the year. The Swedish central bank shifted its policy rate path a little lower. It said that despite the recent unexpectedly strong core inflation print, fundamentals pointed to softening inflation and with the krona having ticked up it could ease further. In May its guidance was for two cuts in H2.