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Summary – March 01

  • Brazil Q4 GDP is expected to rise by 0.1% q/q, with the annual rate increasing slightly to 2.2% y/y. In Chile, economic activity data for January will cross, while in Mexico the latest Banxico economist survey will be released. In the US, the focus for the Friday session turns to final US PMI data for February, alongside the ISM manufacturing release and the final UoM sentiment survey for February.
  • Global News:
    • US – the Fed can take its time to see if monetary policy is convincingly bringing inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target before lowering interest rates, New York Fed President Williams said Thursday, adding that he expects cuts are likely at some point later this year. “We can take time, analyse the data, see ‘is monetary policy getting the job done,’” Williams said.
    • EU – ECB Governing Council member Holzmann warned against early interest-rate cuts after fresh data showed euro-area price growth slowed less than anticipated in February. “We watched inflation data coming in from European and country level, and what we see is that they confirm my view that we have to wait, have to be attentive and cannot rush to a decision,” Holzmann said.
    • US/CHINA (MNI) – the US may bar Chinese vehicle imports, citing national security concerns, according to a statement released by the Department of Commerce. The statement confirmed the start of a 'regulatory process' investigating the potential national security risks posed by the information and communications technology and services (ICTS) in connected vehicles.
    • CHINA (MNI) – China will likely set its 2024 inflation target at around 3%, despite the real level probably printing closer to about 1% due to sluggish demand, which will boost the chance of further central bank policy action, advisors and economists told MNI. Chinese Premier Li Qiang will present the annual CPI target within his 2024 government working report on March 5 during the opening ceremony of the National Peoples’ Congress.

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