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Summary Of Analyst BoC Views Post-CPI [1/2]

CANADA

Ranked by prior views from relatively dovish to hawkish:

  • Desjardins: There does seem to be some light appearing at the end of this long tunnel. We stick to our call for one final 25bp hike in Dec.
  • RBC: Easing inflation pressures draws BoC closer to the end of the hiking cycle. RBC continue to expect a 25bp hike in Dec to a terminal 4% but risks are still tilted to the upside.
  • JPM: We maintain our forecast for a stepdown to a 25bp hike in Dec, before a final 25bp in Jan where the rate stays at 4.25% through 2023.
  • TD: Overall a fairly mixed report with some signs of progress, but the increase in the BoC's core inflation measures is a little alarming. Unlikely enough to single-handedly tip the scales towards a 50bp hike in Dec and continue to look for 25bp.
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Ranked by prior views from relatively dovish to hawkish:

  • Desjardins: There does seem to be some light appearing at the end of this long tunnel. We stick to our call for one final 25bp hike in Dec.
  • RBC: Easing inflation pressures draws BoC closer to the end of the hiking cycle. RBC continue to expect a 25bp hike in Dec to a terminal 4% but risks are still tilted to the upside.
  • JPM: We maintain our forecast for a stepdown to a 25bp hike in Dec, before a final 25bp in Jan where the rate stays at 4.25% through 2023.
  • TD: Overall a fairly mixed report with some signs of progress, but the increase in the BoC's core inflation measures is a little alarming. Unlikely enough to single-handedly tip the scales towards a 50bp hike in Dec and continue to look for 25bp.