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UK: Week Ahead

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Summary of Analyst View (1/2)

BOE
  • All 21 analyst previews that we have read look for a 25bp hike this week and a further 25bp hike in August.
  • Views on the vote breakdown are more nuanced.
    • Out of 14 analysts, half expect to see a 6-3 vote with three members voting for a 50bp hike.
    • 3 analysts look for a 2-6-1 vote split (50/25/unch).
    • The remaining analysts are split between 3-5-1, 2-5-2, 0-9-0 and 0-7-2/0-8-1.
  • No one expects any QT announcement this week, and analysts largely steered clear of reiterating their views in this month’s set of previews.
  • Only 2 analysts still see cuts in their base case: Citi (50bp in 2023), Deutsche Bank (starting Q4-23).
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