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Summary of Analyst Views

BOE
  • The Bank of England is not expected to unveil any new policies at this meeting, but it is expected to set up November's meeting where the majority of analysts expect to see an expansion to QE announced.
  • The vote split will be worth watching with Barclays, HSBC and BNP explicitly looking for at Saunders and/or Haskel to vote for more QE at this meeting.
  • Of those that expect a unanimous vote, most see the risk of at least one dissenting vote being the biggest risk to their view.
  • Most analysts have pointed out that data has come in broadly in line with the Bank's expectations but that MPC speakers have nevertheless focused on the downside risks. This tone is expected to be continued in the Minutes.
  • Of the analysts that don't currently forecast more QE most see the September meeting as an opportunity for the MPC to signal that QE could be extended in November.
  • There is no real consensus on how the MPC's Brexit communications will be updated. Views range from there being no real update on Brexit risks to more explicit language surrounding Brexit risks added to the Minutes and/or the statement.


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