Free Trial

Summary of Analyst Views (2/2)

  • Daiwa are the only institution to forecast a cut, they look for 25bp hikes to 1.25% by Aug22 before a 25bp cut in 2023.
  • Explicit views on the beginning of active gilt sales are still fairly sparse:
    • TD Securities look for sales to begin in May22 as Bank Rate hits 1%.
    • Barclays looks for a May announcement for sales to begin in August.
    • SocGen look for an August start, too.
    • Berenberg, BofA and MS look for Q4 starts.
    • BNP and Nomura look for sales to start in early 2023 (although Nomura looks for a November announcement).
    • JP Morgan looks for modest gilt sales in 2023, but does not specify a start date.
  • In terms of the pace of gilt sales, most analysts look for an explicit monthly/quarterly/annual pace, ranging from GBP5bln/Q to GBP20bln/Q.
  • SocGen looks for an announcement of GBP60bln gilts to be sold by June 2023 from when Bank Rate reaches 1%. (So a stock announcement rather than a flow announcement).

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.