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Summary of Analyst Views (2/2)

BOE
  • Daiwa are the only institution to forecast a cut, they look for 25bp hikes to 1.25% by Aug22 before a 25bp cut in 2023.
  • Explicit views on the beginning of active gilt sales are still fairly sparse:
    • TD Securities look for sales to begin in May22 as Bank Rate hits 1%.
    • Barclays looks for a May announcement for sales to begin in August.
    • SocGen look for an August start, too.
    • Berenberg, BofA and MS look for Q4 starts.
    • BNP and Nomura look for sales to start in early 2023 (although Nomura looks for a November announcement).
    • JP Morgan looks for modest gilt sales in 2023, but does not specify a start date.
  • In terms of the pace of gilt sales, most analysts look for an explicit monthly/quarterly/annual pace, ranging from GBP5bln/Q to GBP20bln/Q.
  • SocGen looks for an announcement of GBP60bln gilts to be sold by June 2023 from when Bank Rate reaches 1%. (So a stock announcement rather than a flow announcement).

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