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Summary of Analyst Views (2/2)

BOE
BulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign Exchange
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 22 analysts): The median is 2.00% while the majority of analysts expect Bank Rate to end 2022 in a 2.00%-2.25% range.
    • Goldman Sachs looks for 2.75% (5%)
    • 4 analysts look for 2.50% (18%)
    • 5 analysts look for 2.25% (23%)
    • 7 analysts for 2.00% (32%)
    • 2 analysts for 1.75% (9%)
    • 3 analysts look for 1.50% (14%)
  • Bank Rate at end 2023 (out of 19 analysts): The median looks for 2.00% with most analysts in the 2.00-2.50% range.
    • Credit Suisse and JP Morgan expect 3.00% (11%)
    • Goldman Sachs expects 2.75% (5%)
    • 4 analysts expect 2.50% (21%)
    • Nomura and UBS expect 2.25% (11%)
    • 6 analysts expect 2.00% (32%)
    • Barclays and Pantheon expect 1.75% (11%)
    • Citi and UniCredit expect 1.50% (11%)
  • Only 2 analysts still see cuts in their base case:
    • Citi (two 25bp cuts in H2-23 after reaching terminal rate of 2.00%)
    • Daiwa (two 25bp cuts in H1-24 after reaching a terminal rate of 2.50%)
    • Deutsche Bank (100bp starting mid-23 after reaching a terminal rate of 2.50%).
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  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 22 analysts): The median is 2.00% while the majority of analysts expect Bank Rate to end 2022 in a 2.00%-2.25% range.
    • Goldman Sachs looks for 2.75% (5%)
    • 4 analysts look for 2.50% (18%)
    • 5 analysts look for 2.25% (23%)
    • 7 analysts for 2.00% (32%)
    • 2 analysts for 1.75% (9%)
    • 3 analysts look for 1.50% (14%)
  • Bank Rate at end 2023 (out of 19 analysts): The median looks for 2.00% with most analysts in the 2.00-2.50% range.
    • Credit Suisse and JP Morgan expect 3.00% (11%)
    • Goldman Sachs expects 2.75% (5%)
    • 4 analysts expect 2.50% (21%)
    • Nomura and UBS expect 2.25% (11%)
    • 6 analysts expect 2.00% (32%)
    • Barclays and Pantheon expect 1.75% (11%)
    • Citi and UniCredit expect 1.50% (11%)
  • Only 2 analysts still see cuts in their base case:
    • Citi (two 25bp cuts in H2-23 after reaching terminal rate of 2.00%)
    • Daiwa (two 25bp cuts in H1-24 after reaching a terminal rate of 2.50%)
    • Deutsche Bank (100bp starting mid-23 after reaching a terminal rate of 2.50%).