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Summary of analyst views

BOE
  • First hike (out of 21 analysts): 9 analysts have pushed back their expectation from December 2021 to February 2022.
    • 4 analysts expect December 2021 (19%), down from 14 (67%) following the November meeting.
    • 15 analysts look for February 2022 (71%), up from 7 (33%) following the November meeting. Note that all analysts expected a hike by February following the November meeting.
    • 1 analyst (5%) looks for a first hike in either February or March 2022.
    • 1 analyst (5%) looks for the first hike to be delayed until March 2022.
  • All analysts have a first hike of 15bp in their base case with following hikes in 25bp increments. Some see a tail risk of a 40bp hike.
  • Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 18 analysts):
    • 3 analysts (17%) look for 1.00%
    • 8 analysts (44%) look for 0.75%
    • 1 analyst (6%) looks for 0.75% or 0.50%
    • 6 analysts (33%) look for 0.50%.
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