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Summary of Rate Calls From BBG Economist Survey

CANADA
  • All 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect rate liftoff on March 2 with +25bp to 0.5% (not surprising with 33bps priced). RBC, recently one of the more dovish views with respect to liftoff, wasn’t included.
  • A clear majority expect it to be followed by a second hike in April, coinciding with the quarterly MPR, with less consensus on timing thereafter.
  • Of the 14 responses out to December, there is a median of 4 hikes through 2022 and 4.5 hikes in the partial collection of those from primary dealers. Analysts continue to fade the ~6.5 hikes priced in OIS.

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