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Supplier Delivery Times Seen Falling At Slowest Pace Since Mid-2022

US DATA
  • The average supplier delivery time in regional Fed manufacturing surveys was near unchanged in December, at -6.6 after -6.4, as delivery times continued to decline on a M/M basis.
  • It leaves it close to the -8.0 averaged through 2023 as a whole, far below the +8.6 averaged through 2017-19 in supply chain pressures have eased considerably.
  • Expected delivery times over the next six months meanwhile increased from -12.9 to -4.7, the highest since May 2022 which better chimes with the increase in the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) over recent months.
  • This GSCPI increased further from -0.4 to +0.1 standard deviations above average in November, the first positive reading since January.

  • The uptick in expected delivery times has come with a sharp increase in Baltic Dry shipping costs, which surged higher into early December and despite pulling back somewhat are still at some of the highest they’ve seen in 2023.

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