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Supply Expectations

CREDIT MACRO

Euro area issuance is expected to stay muted at ~€19b & with no firm skew towards fin/corp's either. We are on track for a more muted supply month vs. last yrs (though in-line with previous years) & vs. a more active $ primary. $IG supply expectations remain robust at $35b. With Solventum's rumoured $7b today it should easily see >$150b record month.

March tends to be a seasonally higher across both regions ($IG +$65b & €/£ +€20b) - its unclear if $ supply increase was taken out of March but seems unlikely - removing the three mega deals (Abbvie's $15b, Bristol's $13b & Cisco's $13.5b) supply would be more in-line with recent years.

$ETF flows were mixed yesterday (outflows from HY, inflows into IG). As we flagged was likely the case, mutual funds seem to be picking up the slight slack over the week - Refinitiv reporting conventional $IG funds (ex. ETFs) taking in $1.2b.

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