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Supported by Risk, but Headwinds into $1.1800

EURO-DOLLAR
MNI (London)

US Trump return to the White House provided a lift for risk into the NY close with EUR/USD able to recover off its post fix pullback low of $1.1772 to $1.1788, closing the day around $1.1784. The positive risk outlook carried over into Asia which allowed rate to extend its recovery through Monday's high of $1.1798 to $1.1799 before meeting headwind resistance into $1.1800. The move higher was able to overcome a negative risk reaction to reports that a House panel, led by Democrats, are investigating competition in the tech sector (betting outlook has improved for the Democrats since last Thursday ahead of the November election). Germany Factory Orders set for release at 0700BST and expected to show improvement (median 2.8%mm, -3.8%yy). ECB Lagarde (dove) speaks at 0935BST, de Cos(dove) at 1000BST. Into the afternoon sees release of US Trade data at 1330BST with appearances by Fed Powell(1540BST), Harker(1645BST), Bostic(1900BST) and Kaplan (2300BST). ECB Lane also due to speak at 1630BST. Support noted at $1.1772/69, $1.1750 ahead of $1.1720. Resistance remains into $1.1800, with note that the 55-dma comes through today at $1.1790(key on the daily close). A break to expose $1.1812(50% $1.2011-1.1612) ahead of $1.1830/35.
MNI Techs: EURUSD traded higher Monday. The key technical development has been a break of key S/T resistance at 1.1770/73, Oct 1 high and trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 1 high. The move higher strengthens the near term outlook and signals scope for a climb above 1.1800 towards 1.1872 next, Sep 21 high. Initial support lies at 1.1685, Sep 30 low. A return below this level is required to reinstate a bearish focus and open 1.1612 once again.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com

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