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Surprising Strength In Core Durable Goods Orders

  • Total durable goods orders fell slightly as expected in August (-0.2% M/M after -0.1%) but core orders were stronger, rising a preliminary 1.3% (cons 0.2%) from an upward revised 0.7% (initial 0.3%).
  • Whilst a nominal measure open to price fluctuations, the recent strength nevertheless represents an accelerating trend, with the 3M/3M order rate hitting 9.3% annualized from the recent April low of 6.4%.
  • Core shipments were closer to expectations at 0.3% M/M, although in Y/Y terms continue to exceed that of orders (11.9% vs 9.7%) as it catches up on last year’s backlog.

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