BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

this is a test, please ignore

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SVB and payrolls in focus

BONDS
  • Concerns around the fallout from SBV have been the main talking point in core fixed income markets this morning. We are now some way below the highs seen in Asian trading / around the European open but equally are notably higher than yesterday's close. We talk through the implications for the Fed and wider markets in our Analysis piece here.
  • Looking ahead, the main release of the day will be the US employment report. Ahead of the SVB fallout, a consensus reading with minimal revisions could have paved the way for 50bp on Mar 22 barring any CPI surprises Tuesday, but such an outright hawkish market reaction is now more questionable. Furthermore, notable downward revisions and/or February payback could draw a significantly dovish reaction after the ramping higher of Fed rate expectations. Also watch average weekly hours worked after their surprise surge, a not expected but potential tick higher on rounding to the u/e rate (3.43% in Jan) and AHE growth with primary dealer skew to a hawkish surprise. For more see our full preview here.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-16+ today at 112-00 (day's high at 112-13) with 10y UST yields down -4.9bp at 3.857% and 2y yields down -3.1bp at 4.841%.
  • Bund futures are up 1.19 today at 132.88 (overnight high at 113.82) with 10y Bund yields down -9.9bp at 2.539% and Schatz yields down -12.2bp at 3.141%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.78 today at 101.26 (day's high at 102.06) with 10y yields down -7.9bp at 3.714% and 2y yields down -8.8bp at 3.713%.
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