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SWEDEN: Labour Market Still Weakening According To PES Report

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Swedish unemployment claims rate (reported by the Public Employment Service/PES) ticked up a tenth to 6.9% in September. The PES Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) thus rose to 0.47, its 14th consecutive monthly increase. 

  • As such, the PES data suggests that Swedish labour market weakening is still accelerating (albeit gradually), supporting the case for more aggressive Riksbank easing.
  • This is somewhat in contrast to recent trends in the LFS unemployment rate, for which the Sahm rule has dropped off quite sharply over the past 6 months.
  • New vacancies were down 28% Y/Y, driving another slight fall in the vacancies to unemployment claims ratio. Meanwhile, redundancy notices also rose (see charts).
  • The number of people unemployed for more than a year rose for a fifth month, and make up around 40% of total unemployed persons.
  • Recent research from Statistics Sweden indicates that improving job opportunities for the long-term unemployed can give an early signal of turning points in the labour market, and by extension GDP. Updated data on these job opportunities are due on Friday in the quarterly LFS report. 

 

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The Swedish unemployment claims rate (reported by the Public Employment Service/PES) ticked up a tenth to 6.9% in September. The PES Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) thus rose to 0.47, its 14th consecutive monthly increase. 

  • As such, the PES data suggests that Swedish labour market weakening is still accelerating (albeit gradually), supporting the case for more aggressive Riksbank easing.
  • This is somewhat in contrast to recent trends in the LFS unemployment rate, for which the Sahm rule has dropped off quite sharply over the past 6 months.
  • New vacancies were down 28% Y/Y, driving another slight fall in the vacancies to unemployment claims ratio. Meanwhile, redundancy notices also rose (see charts).
  • The number of people unemployed for more than a year rose for a fifth month, and make up around 40% of total unemployed persons.
  • Recent research from Statistics Sweden indicates that improving job opportunities for the long-term unemployed can give an early signal of turning points in the labour market, and by extension GDP. Updated data on these job opportunities are due on Friday in the quarterly LFS report.