SWEDEN: Positive House Price Impact From Proposed Mortgage Policy Changes

This morning, a report was presented to the Government analysing possible reforms to certain macroprudential policies in the housing market. The proposals include more relaxed amortisation requirements for households, an increase in the mortgage cap to 90% (from 85% currently) and a new debt-to-income cap of 550%. Analysts expect the proposed changes to have a positive effect on house prices if implemented. 

• The Government will return with its view on the proposals in the Spring.
• Swedbank expect the Government to support the proposals and implement the changes as of September 1, 2025.
  • “The proposed changes are expected to provide a one-off upward effect on housing prices by 5% and credit demand by about the double as existing borrowers are expected to amortise at a slower pace and may also take out new larger loans with their housing as collateral”.
• Meanwhile, Nordea see any new rules being implemented in late 2025 or early 2026 at the earliest.
  • “The proposals are slightly softer than our expectations but seems more distant than forecast. If introduced, they will probably have a positive but small effect on overall home prices”.
• Last week, we wrote a series of posts on recent developments in the Swedish housing market: 'Falling Rates Ease Mortgage Burdens; Business Sentiment Still Weak (1/2)' and 'Falling Rates Ease Mortgage Burdens; Business Sentiment Still Weak (2/2)'