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Swiss CPI Takes Focus Following SNB Governor Remarks

CHF
  • The Swiss Franc is consolidating on Monday following a decent rally across the latter half of last week. As a reminder, the currency was particularly sensitive to comments from SNB President Jordan, stating that the biggest risk of higher inflation stems from a weaker Swiss franc. Jordan also identified a “small” upward risk to the SNB’s inflation forecast, while noting that there are reasons to believe that the natural rate of interest has increased somewhat or might rise over the coming years.
  • The comments clearly thrust Tuesday’s inflation data into focus, where the surveyed median expectation sees annual CPI remaining at 1.4% Y/y.
  • The print will likely be crucial in forming expectations for the June 20 meeting, having seen rate cut expectations significantly tempered following the SNB remarks.
  • We pointed out that moves in both EURCHF & USDCHF appeared corrective at this stage, at least from a technical standpoint, however tomorrow’s data will likely be the next key driver of short-term CHF sentiment.
  • EURCHF remains below the 20-day EMA and the pair is currently hovering just above next support at the 50-day EMA (0.9777). A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement and initially expose the May 3 low (0.9730).
  • USDCHF now trades below support at the 50-day EMA (0.9051) and will now focus on a short-term pivot support at the May 16 low (0.8988).
  • Technical indicators for CHFJPY confirm a bullish theme, however we remain around a big figure below the April high of 175.08, prior to the MoF intervention. Support here is at 172.08, the 20-day EMA.
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