Tajik-Kyrgyz Flare Up Will Draw Moscow & Beijing's Attention

Reports have emerged over the past 24 hours of intense fighting on the border between the Central Asian nations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The escalation has been described by Eurasianet as 'the worst flare up in years', in a region very familiar with border clashes and high ethnic tensions. While there is no sign yet of a broader conflict emerging Russia and China, which both seek to have the nations of Central Asia within their spheres of influence, will be closely observing the situation.

• The borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are extremely convoluted and complex, with a number of enclaves/exclaves established under Soviet rule in the Fergana Valley that runs between all three nations (see map below). This leads to frequent violent clashes over scare water resources and land between armed militias, but rarely - as seen yesterday and today - between the armed forces of both nations. Each side has blamed the other for the violence, which according to RFE/RL saw mortars, machine guns and rifles deployed and civilians on both sides injured.

Source: The Economist

• Regional powers Russia and China are likely to take close interest in any notable uptick in violence between the two nations.
  • China's Xinjiang province borders both countries, China is Kyrgyzstan's largest single trading partner, and both countries are due to receive/have received investment as part of Beijing's Belt and Road initiative.
  • Russia has historically close links with both nations and has permanent military bases in both countries.
• While neither Tajikistan nor Kyrgyzstan have significant natural resources (although Kyrgyzstan does have some sizeable gold deposits), both China and Russia continue to vie for influence with the gov'ts of each nation to try to establish geopolitical dominance in Central Asia.