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Taking Stock Of BoC Spillover

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes see reasonable spillover on the day from the BoC indicating a pause ahead, with the terminal pushing back lower in its 4.86-4.94% range seen since the miss for Dec ISM services.
  • 26bp for Feb 1 (unch), cumulative 45.5bp for Mar (-1bp), 56bp to terminal 4.89% Jun (-2.5bp) before cutting to 4.42% by Dec (-3bp).
  • Tomorrow sees a heavy docket but with the Q4 advance GDP/PCE report likely in focus, including core PCE implications for Friday’s December print.
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  • Fed Funds implied hikes see reasonable spillover on the day from the BoC indicating a pause ahead, with the terminal pushing back lower in its 4.86-4.94% range seen since the miss for Dec ISM services.
  • 26bp for Feb 1 (unch), cumulative 45.5bp for Mar (-1bp), 56bp to terminal 4.89% Jun (-2.5bp) before cutting to 4.42% by Dec (-3bp).
  • Tomorrow sees a heavy docket but with the Q4 advance GDP/PCE report likely in focus, including core PCE implications for Friday’s December print.