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Taking Stock Of Reduced Fed Hike Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • Today’s risk-off moves haven’t materially shaken Fed hike expectations for the July meeting, dipping 2bps to 69bps but still well within last week’s range.
  • There’s been a solid softening further out though, with a cumulative 120bps for Sep (from 125bp as the US came in) and 167bps for Dec (from 177bps), the latter in particular back towards recent lows.
  • The peak is seen at 3.29% in Feb’23 (170bps of hikes from 181bp) after which there is 62bp of cuts priced to end-2023.
  • Fed commentary picks up again tomorrow, with Williams and then the FOMC minutes, before further ’22 voters in Waller and Bullard scheduled for Thursday.

Source: Bloomberg

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