/TALK FROM THE TRENCHES: U.S. MIDTERM TAIL.......>

US: /TALK FROM THE TRENCHES: U.S. MIDTERM TAIL RISKS RUN BOTH WAYS:

*For full PDF report including charts, see: https://tinyurl.com/midtermtails *

- As with prediction markets and prognosticators, the sell-side's views are

crystallising as U.S. midterm election day (Nov 6) comes into view.

- The consensus scenario (60-70% probability) is for a Democratic Party win in

the House of Representatives, with Republicans retaining control of the Senate.

- But the key `tail risks` - a clean sweep by either party of both chambers -

remain prevalent, and could trigger a strong market reaction.

- Broad consensus on sell-side is that a Democrat sweep would be negative USD

and Equities, and positive Treasuries; a Republican sweep would entail the

opposite reaction.

- But there are some differences in opinion, especially on the impact on the

USD, and in which direction the tail risks run.

- See email/PDF link above for further details, or get in touch.