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ECB: Tariff Effect Difficult To Calibrate: Escriva

ECB
BundesbankCentral Bank NewsFixed Income BulletsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletMarketsEuropean Central BankForeign Exchange Bullets

Bank of Spain Governor Escriva noted that a January EC cut was a likely scenario, but re-iterated the need for a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting” approach given the high uncertainty facing the European and global economy.

  • Escriva said that incoming information since June has confirmed the ECB’s central scenario: Inflation converging to 2% and a (slow) recovery of economic activity. He conceded that downside risks to growth stem largely from domestic demand (consumption and investment), rather than net trade.
  • On the prospect of US tariffs, while Escriva said the ECB has done simulations on possible effects, the calibration is difficult because “it depends on the reaction of third party countries”.
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Bank of Spain Governor Escriva noted that a January EC cut was a likely scenario, but re-iterated the need for a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting” approach given the high uncertainty facing the European and global economy.

  • Escriva said that incoming information since June has confirmed the ECB’s central scenario: Inflation converging to 2% and a (slow) recovery of economic activity. He conceded that downside risks to growth stem largely from domestic demand (consumption and investment), rather than net trade.
  • On the prospect of US tariffs, while Escriva said the ECB has done simulations on possible effects, the calibration is difficult because “it depends on the reaction of third party countries”.