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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The biggest US data release of the next couple of sessions is arguably the Daily Treasury Statement, which will provide a snapshot of the resources available to Treasury going into the summer and whether the "x-date" in which it runs out of cash will arrive sooner rather than later.
- Data for April 17 and 18 are the most important in the cycle, with the latter marking the main tax collection deadline of the year. We get those data later today and tomorrow, respectively (est 4pm ET). The daily data is available at this link.
- Monday's release for April 14 showed the Treasury's account at the Fed (the Treasury General Account) closed $35B higher Friday at $135B, the highest level since April 6, after hitting a post-2021 low of $87B last Thursday.
- The key lines to look for in the PDF statement on the Treasury page are: the Corporate Income taxes (which were responsible for $21.9B in collection on Friday), non-withheld individual taxes ($16.8B + $2.8B). That was roughly $41.5B of the $57.7B in total deposits to the Treasury on Friday.
- Wrightson ICAP saw Friday's tax collection as having been more robust than they anticipated (vs their $25B expected). But that probably doesn't impact the overall baseline very much as it's seen for now as a timing issue rather than a sign of bigger collections coming.
- And demonstrating the wide range of opinions, in a note out today, Goldman said they saw this month's collections as undershooting expectations, potentially bringing the x-date closer than their early-August estimate.
Source: US Treasury, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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