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BOE: Taylor due to speak at 16:30GMT

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  • External MPC member Professor Alan Taylor’s inaugural speech as an MPC member is due at 16:30GMT entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook” which he will deliver at the Leeds University Business School on Wednesday. The text will be available here.
  • His main public comments so far have come from his appearance at the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on 19 November. Since then he was joined by both Dhingra and Ramsden to dovishly dissent in favour of a 25bp cut at the December MPC meeting.
    In his November TSC comments he noted that “gradual” to him was aligned to the market (at the time the MPR forecasts were made) which implied about 100bp of cuts over 2025 while he said "my own views are skewed to the downside risks rather than the upside risks of a year ago, then we'd be going faster."
  • Given the market moves since the MPR forecasts, it will be interesting to see whether Taylor explicitly addresses the change in market prices (at time of writing 53bp of cuts are priced in for 2025 from a low of 39bp last week).
  • The views of the three dissenters in the December MPC Minutes described the “sluggish demand and a weakening labour market, now and in the year ahead, both of which would see further downward pressure on demand, wages, and prices.” And noted that “Given the evolving balance of risks, a less restrictive policy rate was warranted” in the view of the three dissenting members.
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  • External MPC member Professor Alan Taylor’s inaugural speech as an MPC member is due at 16:30GMT entitled “Inflation Dynamics and Outlook” which he will deliver at the Leeds University Business School on Wednesday. The text will be available here.
  • His main public comments so far have come from his appearance at the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) on 19 November. Since then he was joined by both Dhingra and Ramsden to dovishly dissent in favour of a 25bp cut at the December MPC meeting.
    In his November TSC comments he noted that “gradual” to him was aligned to the market (at the time the MPR forecasts were made) which implied about 100bp of cuts over 2025 while he said "my own views are skewed to the downside risks rather than the upside risks of a year ago, then we'd be going faster."
  • Given the market moves since the MPR forecasts, it will be interesting to see whether Taylor explicitly addresses the change in market prices (at time of writing 53bp of cuts are priced in for 2025 from a low of 39bp last week).
  • The views of the three dissenters in the December MPC Minutes described the “sluggish demand and a weakening labour market, now and in the year ahead, both of which would see further downward pressure on demand, wages, and prices.” And noted that “Given the evolving balance of risks, a less restrictive policy rate was warranted” in the view of the three dissenting members.