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TD Below Consensus For Employment Growth

CANADA
  • TD Securities are below consensus for Canadian jobs growth in April, looking for +10k vs consensus of +20k, pushing the unemployment rate 0.1pp higher to 6.2%.
  • “Softer wage growth should add to the dovish tone, with TD forecasting a 0.3pp decline to 4.7%, which remains well above other measures that feed into wage-common.”
  • “If realized, our forecast would add to the BoC’s accumulation of evidence that higher interest rates are working to ease labour market conditions, even if the 0.3pp deceleration in wages is not enough to change the Bank's view that current levels of wage growth remain inconsistent with a sustained return to the inflation target.”
  • “As we head into June 1st we think the curve in Canada is primed for another move steeper after a corrective move flatter vs the US. Data is absolutely of the essence as we get closer to the June/July window for the first cut.”
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