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TD: More Hikes, Earlier QT

FED

The January FOMC has convinced TD to upwardly revise its rate hike profile and bring forward QT timing.

  • They now see 4 25bp hikes this year (was 3) in March, June, Sept, and Dec, and now see QT formally announced in May (was September). They still see 4 hikes in 2024.
  • Therefore, TD now sees a higher terminal rate (2.00-2.25%, up 25bp from prior).
  • "Alternatively, officials could well raise rates again in May and formally announce QT in June.”
  • While Powell did not endorse or reject a 50bp hike / consecutive meeting hikes, “in both cases he emphasized that the economy is stronger now than it was the last time the Fed started raising rates”.
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