TD note that "the EUR rallied sharply...>

EURO-DOLLAR: TD note that "the EUR rallied sharply against most G10 currencies

in the aftermath of the ECB's policy announcement. We think this could be the

beginning of a broader trend. The combination of a more confident tone from

Draghi and weaker-than-expected August US CPI reading leaves us with a

moderately bullish tactical stance on the EUR - particularly against the USD. As

September reaches its midpoint, we think the USD's summer rebound now looks

exhausted. We think the primary trend of a weaker dollar is likely to reassert

itself into year end. We continue to target EURUSD at 1.18 at the end of Q3 and

1.21 for year-end. While we see some risks over a longer horizon, the EUR's

macro backdrop has started to improve - at least relative to market perceptions

in recent months. We note that our measure of EUR "hard" data surprises now

appear to be in the early stages of an upswing. This comes after a difficult

period since the early weeks of Q2. Looking forward, we see scope for investor

sentiment on the economy to improve from its current downbeat levels. At the

same time, we note the equivalent USD series has largely trended sideways around

the neutral mark."