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TD On Potential Divergence In BoC and Fed Monetary Policy

CANADA
  • With the BoC moving closer to easing, TD “believe the Bank can diverge from the Fed by at least another 50bps before rate differentials and a softer loonie start to play a larger role in the BoC's deliberations.”
  • “In our base-case for rate cuts to start at the July policy decision that would suggest that continued resilience in the US economy is unlikely to derail the BoC before October.”
  • “In a scenario where stronger economic conditions force the Fed to stay on hold beyond September (not our base case), it would introduce upside risk to our forecast for USDCAD to hit 1.41 by Q4”.
  • “That would leave the Bank balancing the risks of further CAD depreciation on a cut to 4.25%, or holding rates unchanged at 4.50% to take some pressure off the currency and give more time for the Fed to catch up.”
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