MNI BRIEF: Canadians Fuzzy On How BOC Hikes Slow CPI, Government's Role

CANADA FLASH MAY GDP +0.1% ON FACTORIES AND REAL ESTATE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, June 28

MNI BRIEF: BCB Evaluating Real Depreciation Impacts - Galipolo

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Pledges to Curb Any Overshoot Of The Yuan: MPC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY40 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 581; OIL RIGS 479; GAS RIGS 97

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE APF on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

TD Securities Expect Dovish Read on Canada Employment Data

CANADA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsCanada Bank of Canada Market News
  • TD Securities look for the April hiring surge to give way to softer labour market conditions in May with 15k jobs added as the unemployment rate climbs 0.2pp to 6.3%, both relatively negative assumptions considering the median Bloomberg surveys.
  • TD note that Canadian employment data has a history of mean-reversion after large gains, which raises the bar for another above-trend performance in May. Softer wage growth should add to the more dovish tone, with AHE for permanent workers forecast to slow 0.1pp to 4.7% y/y.
  • TD believe this is a fairly straight forward read for the jobs print, as a really strong print could see July pricing dial back a bit, whereas a really weak number could see the market start pricing in 80% probability for a cut in July.
  • As is generally the case, it is all about the aggregation of all the data going into the next BoC meeting. For now, TD sit with a notably dovish bias in Canada (long the front-end with steepeners outright and vs the US). Our only non-dovish Canada trade right now is a short Canada vs the US in 10s trade where TD see value in favour of that trade over the longer term.
200 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • TD Securities look for the April hiring surge to give way to softer labour market conditions in May with 15k jobs added as the unemployment rate climbs 0.2pp to 6.3%, both relatively negative assumptions considering the median Bloomberg surveys.
  • TD note that Canadian employment data has a history of mean-reversion after large gains, which raises the bar for another above-trend performance in May. Softer wage growth should add to the more dovish tone, with AHE for permanent workers forecast to slow 0.1pp to 4.7% y/y.
  • TD believe this is a fairly straight forward read for the jobs print, as a really strong print could see July pricing dial back a bit, whereas a really weak number could see the market start pricing in 80% probability for a cut in July.
  • As is generally the case, it is all about the aggregation of all the data going into the next BoC meeting. For now, TD sit with a notably dovish bias in Canada (long the front-end with steepeners outright and vs the US). Our only non-dovish Canada trade right now is a short Canada vs the US in 10s trade where TD see value in favour of that trade over the longer term.