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ASIA: TD Securities have noted that "as Asia's economies open up there are signs
of economic recovery, but most manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction. Asian
exports over the last two months have been extremely weak. Exports performance
has seen significant differentiation across the region. Asian exports are on
track for an average fall of at least 20% y/y in June after a 15.3% y/y fall in
the previous month. While any bounce may be tentative and shallow given ongoing
external weakness, there are signs that exports over the next couple of months
may at least be less negative. Throughout the last few months, tech exports have
been relatively resilient. There are signs of softening, however. The likely
tentative improvement (less negative, rather than positive) in exports in the
near term is unlikely to change the still weak outlook in the months ahead. The
soft trade backdrop will likely mean that Asian currencies will still need to
jostle for competitiveness, likely limiting further appreciation in the months