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TD Sees Jobs Report Giving A Dovish Tone Despite Solid Jobs Growth

CANADA
  • TD look for 20k jobs growth in August (cons 17.5k), slightly below the 6-month trend and well below levels required to keep up with population growth. It should be helped by a partial rebound in construction.
  • A 20k print would leave the UE rate stable at 5.5% after rounding (risks skewed to 5.6%), while softer wage growth (seen easing from 5.0% to 4.4% Y/Y vs cons 4.7%) should give the report a dovish tone even if jobs print slightly above consensus.
  • “A very weak print would be highly notable and add to the strong CAD duration over US duration story that has been playing out since the GDP print. On the contrary a strong jobs print could just as easily reverse that strength from the weak GDP print.”
  • “We lean towards the consensus, so unfortunately we see risk-reward as a coin flip around this; nonetheless we prefer adding to short CAN-US trades in 10s and like adding or emphasizing holding the 5s30s box flatter vs the US.”
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