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TD Stick To Rate Call After Jobs Report

CANADA
  • TD note the large impact from Omicron in the Jan employment report, with -200k jobs lost and the unemployment rate up to 6.5% (market: -110k, 6.3%).
  • Part-time workers (-117k) accounted for most of the jobs lost as hours worked fell by 2.2%.
  • They continue to expect the BoC to hike in March as it “should have incorporated near-term weakness into its latest projections”, with four hikes in 2022 in total and balance sheet runoff starting in April.
  • TD doesn’t see “much room for Canada to run away from the US here in outperformance in the front-end, but we are very constructive on CAD longs”.

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