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TD Still See Window Of Opportunity For Rate Cuts Opening In Q3

  • With Wednesday’s unchanged decision, monetary policy conditions remain deep into astringent territory (370bps above neutrality). The statement acknowledged that inflation is still above the level compatible with meeting its target, expectations are also drifting away from it on longer term horizons and fiscal uncertainty is high.
  • TD expect the rates curve to push the beginning of the normalization cycle towards year-end or early 2024. In their case, TD still see the window of opportunity for rate cuts to open in Q3 but acknowledge risks of a later start.
  • TD highlighted they think most of what BCB has highlighted is well known by FX markets.

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