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Approaching Major Support


Inflation Concerns Underpin Bear Steepening


Bullish Theme

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  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis are consolidating but maintain a bullish tone. The focus is on 4239.26, 1.764 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing. Key support is unchanged at 4110.50, Apr 21 low. A break of this level would signal a top.
  • In FX, EURUSD last week cleared the bear channel resistance drawn off the Jan 6 high but has failed to remain above it. The warning is a false break and if correct highlights a bearish threat. Watch support at, 1.2014/1987, the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A break of this zone would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 1.1943, Apr 19 low. GBPUSD remains below 1.4009, Apr 20 high. The break Friday of support at 1.3824, Apr 22 low strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on 1.3717, Apr 16 low. The USDJPY maintains a bullish tone following last week's gains. The focus is on 109.96 next, Apr 9 high.

  • On the commodity front, the Gold outlook is bullish and the focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Watch key short-term support at $1756.2, Apr 29 low. Brent (n1) remains above support at $65.59, the 20-day EMA. Bullish conditions remain intact and the focus is on $69.73, Mar 8 high. WTI (M1) also remains above its 20-day EMA at $62.53. The focus is on $66.15, Mar 15 high.
  • In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have recently breached 170.05, 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally. This opens 169.24, Feb 25 low. Gilts risk is skewed to the downside. The next support and intraday bear trigger is at 127.32, Apr 1 low.