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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
The Telegraph is reporting that Downing St. has penciled-in October or November of 2024 for the next UK general election. This is in the hope that by that point the economy will be on more of a solid footing and the 'small boats' migrant crisis will be under control, which could enable PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservative Party to pull off a shock win.
- Opinion polling in April so far has shown the Conservatives between 11% and 21% behind the main opposition centre-left Labour Party. This compares to a 16%-to-32% gap between the two parties in late Oct 2022 following Sunak becoming PM. While the current numbers would still result in a Labour majority if replicated in a GE, the narrowing of the gap will give some confidence to the Conservatives.
- The poor media and public reception to a number of attack ads released by Labour in the past days targeting PM Sunak could damage Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's efforts to portray his party as 'above' the usual 'gutter politics' of election campaigns. This in turn could see support drift away from the party.
- Political betting markets continue to show a Labour majority as the most likely outcome of the election. Data from Smarkets gives a 54.1% implied probability of a Labour majority, compared to 33.8% for a hung parliament (where not part has a majority) and a 10.6% implied probability of the Conservatives retaining their majority.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next GE Outcome, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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