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Telia Broadly In Line Though Leverage Beat Consensus, Spreads Muted

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  • Q4 Rev +0.9% to SEK 23.1bn vs. consensus of SEK 23.3bn though like-for-like this was a 0.4% decrease YoY driven by misses in Sweden and Finland.
  • Q4 adj-EBITDA reached SEK 7.5bn, ahead of but broadly in line with conensus
  • Revenues slightly below estimates at SEK 23.10bn (vs. SEK 23.33bn estimated).
  • Q4 net loss reported at SEK 2.7bn though this was driven by the non-cash impairment as flagged.
  • Structural Operational FCF for the quarter was SEK 2.3bn to give SEK 7.3bn for the full year while Net Debt of SEK 73.7bn gave an adjusted leverage ratio of 2.32 from 2.5 at the end of Q3. We had calculated consensus leverage at 2.6x.
  • 2024 outlook anticipates low single-digit growth in service revenue and low-to-mid single digit growth in adj-EBITDA while structural FCF forecasted at SEK 7-8bn and Capex excl Fees seen at SEK 14bn.
  • The outlook places current FY structural FCF at the lower end of the guidance for next year while CapEx should be broadly constant.
  • "Looking ahead for 2024, the Telia management team expect the current business momentum to continue"
  • The CEO gave a non-committal answer on the TV4 sale in a post-release interview.
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