SWEDEN
Preliminary Q4 residential construction data suggests housing starts and completions growth remains tepid. However, a rebound in residential gross fixed capital investment and relevant sentiment indices suggests a more positive outlook ahead for the sector, as Riksbank rate cuts feed through into the real economy.
- Swedish housing starts rose by 1,300 in the fourth quarter, with 4,600 multi-dwelling (i.e. apartment) starts and 1,360 one- or two-dwelling building starts. Across 2024 overall, there were 25,770 starts. However, for the purpose of comparison with 2023, Statistics Sweden adjusts the 2024 figures 10% higher, “which corresponds to the reporting lag for the corresponding period in recent years”. Compared to 2023, total starts were down 2% Y/Y (vs -49% Y/Y between 2022 and 2023).
- There were 9,650 total completions in Q4, up was 6,180 in Q3. The 4Q rolling sum of completions fell to 39,420 from 46,400 last quarter. This reflects the sharp pullback in starts as the Riksbank began its hiking cycle in 2022.
- Sentiment amongst construction firms remains soft, but has been increasing in recent months. Meanwhile, an index tracking whether consumers are looking to buy a home in the next 12 months has also moved away from cycle lows.
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