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Terminal ECB Pricing Continues to Hover Around 4.00%

STIR

While there have been some contained gyrations surrounding today’s Italian CPI release, it hasn’t been viewed as a meaningful gamechanger re: ECB policy (as you would expect). Terminal deposit rate pricing has been oscillating either side of 4.00% in recent days. Zooming out, while some are pointing to favourable developments in the German IFO price survey indicators, our momentum series indicate that while broad Eurozone goods and commodity price pressures are subsiding, they are picking up for services (click for our full preview of this week’s Eurozone CPI data).


ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jul-233.626+22.9
Sep-233.789+39.2
Oct-233.847+45.0
Dec-233.877+48.0
Jan-243.859+46.2
Mar-243.811+41.4
Apr-243.737+34.0
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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