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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Fed rate hike expectations have ticked higher overnight ahead of Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony to Congress at 1000ET, with terminal Funds rate pricing 0.8bp higher. That had been as high as +3bp overnight, fading after the initial hawkish reaction to an above-consensus UK CPI report (European implied rate changes have faded too but remain relatively higher on the day - see chart).
- Current Fed pricing includes 23bp of hikes seen through November's FOMC, and just under 19bp for July (~75% implied chance of a 25bp hike), and 23bp through September.
- That setup puts immediate focus for Powell's testimony on the degree to which Powell plays up July's "live" nature. Of course, if asked, he's likely to emphasize data-dependence and stress that no decision has yet been made.
- An appearance by Chicago's Goolsbee at 1225ET is also of note - while he's on a panel and there is no prepared text expected, it could be interesting to hear a dove's perspective on June's hawkish meeting message.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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