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Terminal Holding At 5% On Last Day Before Fed Blackout

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied little changed after yesterday’s further large increase which drove a 5% terminal.
  • 78bp for Nov 2, 144bp to 4.52% Dec and peak 5.02% in May’23 all unchanged, with the 4.76% for Dec’23 -2.5bp.
  • That additional 25bp hike on net through 2023 is in stark contrast to both rates of circa 4.4% pre-US CPI.
  • NY Fed Williams gives opening remarks at 0910ET, Evans (’23) at 0940ET and Daly (’24) at 1130ET, the latter on the housing market and state of the economy.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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