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Terminal Rate Closer To 4% in 2022 (Governor Rusnok)

CZECHIA
  • CNB Governor Rusnok mentioned in an interview that he sees terminal rate closer to 4% (than 3%) in 2022, implying that the central bank is far from done in hiking rates.
  • It is clear that CEE policymakers seem to be very sensitive to the drastic rise in interest rates in the past year and therefore will do whatever is needed to curb inflationary pressures.
  • Rusnok added that he expects debate on a bigger than 50bps hike at the next meeting on December 22.
  • Monetary policy divergence between CNB and ECB could continue to support the CZK (over Euro) in the medium term.
  • First support to watch on EURCZK stands at 25.20; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 25.
  • On the topside, first resistance stands at 25.44 (100DMA),
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