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Terminal Slightly Higher Whilst Rate Cut Expectations Build Again

STIR FUTURES
  • The implied terminal rate is now building after initially little change (barring very quick spike lower), with FOMC-dated OIS now at 4.97% for May meeting (15bp hike priced) from 4.94% prior.
  • More significant volatility in year-end pricing, OIS bouncing back from immediate lows of 4.10% to 4.27% at typing but still down from the ~4.35% prior. It sees cuts build back to ~70bps but still well off last week’s extremes.


FOMC-dated OIS and Fed implied rates for Dec'23 meetingSource: Bloomberg

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