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THAILAND: 2024 YTD Trade Deficit More Than Double 2023’s

THAILAND
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeAPACPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionThailand

September Thai customs merchandise trade data were weaker than expected with the surplus widening significantly less than forecast. It rose to $394mn from $265mn while imports outpaced exports by a wide margin. USDTHB has been steady in response to the data at 33.79 after rising 1.9% over last week. 

  • 2024 has seen a YTD merchandise trade deficit of almost $6bn compared with $2.3bn in the year to September 2023.
  • Exports rose only 1.1% y/y in September down from 7% y/y, despite an 8.8% y/y pickup in rice exports. On a positive note, the 3-month average improved to 7.8% y/y in September compared with 4.5% in June.
  • The Commerce Ministry continues to expect exports to meet its 1-2% 2024 growth target with a pickup in Q4.
  • Imports increased a strong 9.9% y/y up from August’s 8.9%, which is implying robust domestic demand. The increase in the 3-month average to 10.6% y/y in September, highest in two years, from 2.4% in June emphasises this.
  • The balance of payments trade data for September is released on Thursday. 

Thailand customs merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma

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September Thai customs merchandise trade data were weaker than expected with the surplus widening significantly less than forecast. It rose to $394mn from $265mn while imports outpaced exports by a wide margin. USDTHB has been steady in response to the data at 33.79 after rising 1.9% over last week. 

  • 2024 has seen a YTD merchandise trade deficit of almost $6bn compared with $2.3bn in the year to September 2023.
  • Exports rose only 1.1% y/y in September down from 7% y/y, despite an 8.8% y/y pickup in rice exports. On a positive note, the 3-month average improved to 7.8% y/y in September compared with 4.5% in June.
  • The Commerce Ministry continues to expect exports to meet its 1-2% 2024 growth target with a pickup in Q4.
  • Imports increased a strong 9.9% y/y up from August’s 8.9%, which is implying robust domestic demand. The increase in the 3-month average to 10.6% y/y in September, highest in two years, from 2.4% in June emphasises this.
  • The balance of payments trade data for September is released on Thursday. 

Thailand customs merchandise exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma

Keep reading...Show less