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Thailand Tightens Covid Control Measures, Remains On U.S. FX Manipulator Watchlist

THB

Spot USD/THB re-opened on a slightly softer footing and last sits -0.037 at THB31.180, looking through support from Apr 1 & 2 lows of THB31.198. Further losses past the 23.6% retracement of the YtD rally at THB31.166 would open up Mar 26 low of THB31.060. Bulls look for a rebound above Apr 16 high of THB31.350, towards Apr 12 cycle high of THB31.575.

  • Friday saw Thailand's officials tighten Covid-19 restrictions in a bid to arrest the spread of the virus, triggering speculation that the plans to reopen borders for tourists can be delayed. At the same time, PM Prayuth ruled out a nationwide lockdown and said that the gov't still has ~THB300bn, which can be used to stimulate economic recovery.
  • Thailand set a new daily record in Covid-19 cases on Sunday, recording 1,767 infections, with the local press warning against the risk of hospital bed shortage.
  • On Friday, BBG flagged that Thailand appears to be meeting all of the U.S. Tsy's criteria for being designated a currency manipulator. However, the U.S. refrained from naming any trading partner a manipulator in its FX policy report released on Friday, noting that only Switzerland, Taiwan and Vietnam met the criteria and leaving Thailand on the watchlist.
  • The BoT downplayed the significance of being on the watchlist and reiterated its commitment to FX flexibility, with "interventions limited only to curbing excessive volatility and rapid movements of the baht on both sides."
  • Thailand's Customs Dept will release trade data on Thursday, with the BoT's weekly update on foreign reserves coming up on Friday.

Fig. 1: Thailand Confirmed Covid-19 Cases

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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